Daily Market Outlook, April 24, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Oil continues to play a significant role in the macroeconomic landscape this morning. Brent is pressing toward $106/bbl, up for a fifth straight session and now roughly 74% YTD, as the lack of progress in US-Iran de-escalation keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and forces the market to price a more durable supply shock. The cross-asset response is becoming cleaner: 10Y UST yields and the broad dollar are both tracking their first weekly gains in a month, while MSCI ACWI is headed for its first weekly decline since April. The market is moving from a “hopeful pause” to a "persistent disruption", and if Hormuz remains constrained, the energy impulse will increasingly dominate the rate/FX/equity conversation. That said, equities are not breaking — at least not yet. Q1 earnings remain solid, with roughly 80% of US companies beating expectations, and that is still cushioning index-level damage. Despite the narrowness of leadership, it remains powerful, with semiconductors extending their winning streak to 17 days in the US session. So the current setup is less about outright risk-off and more about a growing tension between earnings resilience and macro deterioration. Currently, strong micro factors continue to counteract the macro headwind, but the balance is becoming increasingly precarious: if oil prices rise further, it will become significantly more challenging for earnings alone to sustain the market.

UK retail sales showed stronger-than-expected results in March, with headline volumes rising 0.7% month-on-month, driven by a significant 6.1% increase in fuel sales as consumers stocked up. Excluding fuel, sales grew by 0.2%, exceeding flat forecasts. Despite downward revisions for February, the overall trend indicates that UK consumers are faring better than anticipated amid external uncertainties. Year-on-year growth rates are modest at 1.7%, but the underlying trend remains positive, with notable gains in non-store retailing, clothing, and department stores. Core retail volumes continue to rise despite increasing price pressures, with nominal sales growth outpacing wage growth. However, sustainability remains a concern as rising energy costs could impact household expenses in the future. Overall, UK economic activity has been more resilient in early 2023, though challenges lie ahead.

Next week marks a pivotal moment for major central banks as they navigate the clearer implications of the Iran-US conflict and its impact on energy prices. The IMF Spring Meetings have likely aligned their strategies, leaning towards caution rather than immediate action. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to maintain current rates, taking advantage of a recent decline in CPI, while leaving the possibility of a June hike open. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is also anticipated to hold steady due to softer CPI and signs of weakening demand, with fuel tax relief providing some leeway amidst the commodity shock. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach as inflation pressures stabilise and labour market conditions remain steady. Both the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are expected to maintain unchanged rates in Europe, albeit for different reasons. The BoE faces a divided outlook, with persistent inflation against a soft labour market, which allows it to be patient. Conversely, the ECB is in a stronger position, having entered the crisis with well-calibrated policies. ECB President Lagarde is likely to emphasise that no immediate action is expected, but the readiness to respond remains if inflation persists.

Overnight Headlines

• German Biz Confidence Poised To Drop Again As Iran Seizes Ships

• Japan’s Inflation Picks Up As Oil Clouds Outlook Ahead Of BoJ

• EU Warns Trade Deal With US At Risk Over Effort To Strengthen It

• Trump Threatens UK’s PM Starmer With ‘Big Tariff’ Over Tech Tax

• US Eyes Iran's Hormuz Defenses Target If Ceasefire Fail, CNN Says

• Third US Aircraft Carrier Arrives In The Middle East

• Treasury Yields Rise Amid Escalation Of Risk In Middle East

• Intel Gives Strong AI-Fueled Outlook, Sending Shares Soaring

• SAP Reports Cloud Growth That Beats Estimates In AI Push

• DeepSeek Unveils Newest Flagship A Year After AI Breakthrough

• Trump Says He Is Thinking About The US Buying Spirit Airlines

• Meta To Lay Off 10% Of Employees In May

• Nike Cuts 1,400 Roles In Second Round Of Layoffs This Year

• China’s Carmakers Grab 30% Of Europe’s Plug-In Hybrid Sales

• Mercedes Sees Prolonged Slump In China Demand On Poor Economy

• Monte Dei Paschi Chief Considering Generali Stake Sale

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD: 1.1600 (EU1.49b), 1.1900 (EU816.8m), 1.2200 (EU727.9m)

• USD/JPY: 161.00 ($2.31b), 157.00 ($2.09b), 159.00 ($1.53b)

• AUD/USD: 0.7200 (AUD679.2m), 0.7100 (AUD672.6m), 0.6900 (AUD598.8m)

• USD/CNY: 6.7900 ($1.4b), 6.8550 ($1.39b), 8.3000 ($1.3b)

• USD/MXN: 17.50 ($387.9m)

• USD/CAD: 1.3650 ($455.8m), 1.3810 ($448.9m), 1.3675 ($438.4m)

• GBP/USD: 1.3050 (GBP374.3m)

• USD/BRL: 5.4000 ($512m)

• NZD/USD: 0.5800 (NZD577.8m), 0.5500 (NZD350m)

• USD/KRW: 1480.00 ($653.5m), 1380.00 ($300m), 1370.00 ($300m)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8525 (EU300m)

CFTC Positions as of April 10, 2026: 

• Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 186,638 contracts to 414,897

• Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 71,259 contracts to 1,011,108

• Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 72,816 contracts to 1,625,745

• Speculators trim CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 23,259 contracts to 800,365

• Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 8,209 contracts to 1,703,806

• Speculators increase CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 40,440 contracts to 300,823

• Speculators increase CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 15,120 contracts to 74,116

• Bitcoin net long position is 2,193 contracts

• Swiss franc posts net short position of -34,097 contracts

• British pound net short position is -54,724 contracts

• Euro net long position is 26,018 contracts

• Japanese yen net short position is -83,208 contracts

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 7050 Target 7200

• Below 6950 Target 6850

DXY

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 98.60 Target 99

• Below 98.50 Target 97

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.1720 Target 1.19

• Below 1.1690 Target 1.1590

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.3430 Target 1.3610

• Below 1.34 Target 1.3290

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 158.50 Target 161

• Below 157.30 Target 156.50

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 4600 Target 5000

• Below 4500 Target 4350

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 73.5k Target 80k

• Below 72.6k Target 70.5k