US Jobs Data on Watch
The main focus for traders today will of course be the latest round of US jobs data. Stocks have been trading higher recently against a backdrop of softer-than-forecast US data, strengthening the view that the Fed will hold off from tightening in September. In terms of forecast for today’s release, the market is looking for the headline NFP to print 169k from 186k prior, wage growth at 0.3% from 0.4% prior and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 3.5%.
Potential Outcomes & Trading Scenarios
Should the data err on the weaker side, USD is likely to trade lower as traders downplay their tightening expectations through year end. In this scenario, the Nasdaq should push higher. Alternatively, if we see any unexpected upside in today’s data, this will likely make the near-term outlook a little more obscure. If we see any strong upside beat, USD is likely to find higher levels as late shorts cover their positions, leading stocks lower near-term. The extent to which we see a risk off move would depend on the scale of the upside and would likely need both jobs and wage growth to come in well above forecasts which, on the back of recent data, looks unlikely.
Technical Views
NASDAQ
The recent correction lower in the Nasdaq saw the market finding firm support ahead of a test of the 14288.2 level. Price has since turned higher and is now back above the 15177.5 level. While above here, the focus is on a further push higher towards the 16010.4 level next, in line with bullish momentum studies and the broader bull trend. Only a break of 14288.2 will negate the bullish view.
.png)
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.