Despite the quarter's weaker-than-expected start, the dynamics observed in Q4 appear to limit the implications for overall Q1 growth.Daily Market Outlook, March 13, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Asian markets took a hit as investors treaded carefully ahead of the weekend, wary of escalating tensions involving Iran. The Japanese Yen tumbled to its weakest level since July 2024, as surging oil prices stoked fresh concerns about inflation. By the afternoon, Asia’s main stock index had dropped by as much as 1.2%. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures trimmed earlier gains, rising just 0.2%. On Thursday, the US benchmark had slumped 1.5%, hitting its lowest point since November. Brent crude held steady, trading just above $100 per barrel after a sharp 9.2% surge the previous day. Market volatility persisted as traders weighed the US administration's moves to curb soaring energy prices against heightened rhetoric from both Donald Trump and Iran's newly appointed supreme leader. Asian stocks managed to claw back some of their losses, and S&P 500 futures rallied up to 0.5% after the US announced a second temporary waiver allowing purchases of Russian oil. The Yen’s sharp decline brought it uncomfortably close to levels that have historically prompted intervention by Japanese authorities. However, analysts believe intervention is unlikely for now, as the currency’s movement is being driven by strong US economic data and geopolitical uncertainties tied to Iran. In the bond market, US Treasuries held steady following a broad selloff the day before, spurred by growing inflationary pressures. On Thursday, the yield on the policy-sensitive two-year note jumped nine basis points to 3.74%, while the 10-year yield edged up three basis points to 4.26%.

The ONS reported that UK GDP remained flat at 0.0% m/m in January, falling short of the 0.2% m/m growth anticipated by consensus. Despite this weaker-than-expected start to the quarter, the implications for overall Q1 growth appear limited due to the dynamics observed in Q4. The BoE’s February Monetary Policy Report projected Q1 growth at 0.2% q/q, and even with only modest gains in February, this target remains achievable.  However, downside risks to activity are emerging. The energy price surge and indications that early-year retail strength has waned cast some doubt on the relatively optimistic signals from recent PMI data. Within the services sector, two key areas offset the strong retail contribution. Hospitality detracted 5 basis points from the monthly GDP growth rate, while the ‘employment activities’ sub-sector within administrative and support services saw a significant 5.7% m/m decline—the largest single negative contribution reported by the ONS. These developments highlight ongoing concerns about potential employment weakness. As the BoE prepares for its decision next week, the January GDP figures are unlikely to carry significant weight. Instead, attention will shift to the broader implications of rising energy prices and their potential impact on the economy.

This week, the G10 landscape anticipates eight central bank decisions, with only the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expected to raise interest rates. Market participants will closely scrutinize policymakers' communications, particularly in light of the ongoing energy price shock. For the Federal Reserve (Fed), new projections might increase the 2026 PCE inflation forecast while holding the 2028 estimate at 2%, albeit with upside risks. Recent CPI and payroll data suggest Chair Powell may adopt a balanced tone, and a slight adjustment in the ‘dot plot’ could shift the implied end-2026 Fed Funds rate to 3.625%, reflecting one fewer rate cut. The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to strike a hawkish tone, with President Lagarde and colleagues aiming to avoid a recurrence of the high inflation levels seen in 2022-2023. Updated scenario analyses on the energy shock are expected, emphasizing the trade-offs between inflation and growth, while risk assessments may pivot away from being "broadly balanced."  In the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) is unlikely to cut rates, and dovish members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may reconsider their stance due to rising oil prices nearing $100 per barrel, which complicates the narrative of declining inflation persistence. The MPC may stress a more measured, deliberate approach rather than reactive decision-making. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), known for its tightening intentions, may perceive the energy crisis as a catalyst for a possible rate hike in April, potentially leading to a 1% policy rate increase. Policymakers are expected to adopt a cautious communication strategy. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is likely to focus on the appreciating Swiss Franc, which helps offset energy price concerns and keeps inflation near zero. Their primary concern may be managing imported deflation risks through foreign exchange intervention, avoiding a return to negative interest rate policy (NIRP). The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) appears poised for a 25 basis point hike to 4.10%, driven by hawkish rhetoric and rising oil prices pushing inflation above the 4.2% forecast. Market watchers will look for guidance on whether this move signals the start of further tightening or merely an early adjustment. The Bank of Canada (BoC), facing geopolitical uncertainties and awaiting another labor report, is expected to maintain its current stance without issuing firm guidance, as this meeting does not include quarterly projections. Finally, the Riksbank is likely to hold its rate steady at 1.75%, with limited chances of a near-term hike, especially when compared to the ECB, as geopolitical repricing continues to influence the broader outlook.

Overnight Headlines

• Trump And Iran Strike Defiant Tone As Oil Markets See Little Relief

• US Will Not Impose Steep Duties On Battery Material From China

• US Starts Second Trade Probe In Trump’s Tariff Policy Revival

• Traders Are No Longer Fully Pricing In A Fed Rate Cut This Year

• Australia Pension Eyes Private US Assets Before NYC Meetings

• Yen Slides To Weakest Since July 2024 As Iran War Escalates

• US To Ease Shipping Rule In Bid To Tame Spiraling Fuel Prices

• US Issues 30-Day Sanctions Waiver For Purchase Of Russian Oil At Sea

• US Critical Minerals Talks Advance With EU, Japan On Price Floor

• Meta Delays Rollout of New AI Model After Performance Concerns

• Adobe CEO To Step Down In Face of Investor Concerns Over AI

• China’s ByteDance Gets Access To Top Nvidia AI Chips

• S&P Weighs Rule Changes That Would Speed SpaceX’s S&P 500 Entry

• BESI Attracts Takeover Interest As Adv. Chip Packaging Demand Surges

• Glencore Raises Hope Of Reviving Rio Tinto Deal As Coal Prices Turn

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD: 1.1700 – €2.3 billion | 1.1670 – €1.8 billion | 1.1600 – €1.4 billion

• USD/JPY: 156.00 – $1.01 billion

• AUD/USD: 0.7100 – A$896 million | 0.7000 – A$853 million | 0.7130 – A$839 million

• GBP/USD: 1.3300 – £450 million | 1.3350 – £409 million

• USD/CAD: 1.3835 – $471 million | 1.3840 – $300 million

• NZD/USD: 0.5790 – NZ$310 million | 0.6200 – NZ$300 million

CFTC Positions as of March 6, 2026: 

• Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 66,786 contracts to 399,180 Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 8,773 contracts to 996,776 

• Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 25,863 contracts to 2,090,794 Speculators trim CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 119,513 contracts to 654,507 Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 9,495 contracts to 1,338,541 Speculators trim CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 24,793 contracts to 255,694 Speculators raise CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net long position by 15,191 contracts to 20,265 

• Bitcoin net long position is 1,011 contracts Swiss franc posts net short position of -41,283 contracts British pound net short position is -72,686 contracts Euro net long position is 136,498 contracts Japanese yen net short position is -16,575 contracts

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 6800 Target 6920

• Below 6700 Target 6500

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.1675 Target 1.1730

• Below 1.15 Target 1.1410

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.3450 Target 1.3550

• Below 1.3400 Target 1.3150

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 157.50 Target 159.40

• Below 155 Target 152

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 5150 Target 5325

• Below 5200 Target 4900

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 78k Target 81.5k

• Below 75k Target 53k